Degree ROI

What does the degree actually cost, and when does it pay you back?

Tuition is the number everyone argues about, and it is usually the smaller half of the bill. The larger half is the salary you did not earn while you were studying — nobody sends you an invoice for it, so almost nobody counts it. This tool runs both paths month by month: the degree, with its tuition and its loan, against starting work now and investing the difference. It tells you the year the degree pays for itself, or tells you plainly that it never does inside your horizon.

The degree

Tuition and fees (year one) The first year only. Later years are escalated by the tuition inflation rate under Assumptions, so a four-year degree costs more than four times this figure. Use the published sticker price minus any scholarship you actually hold — not one you hope to win. Years of study Every year here is a year of tuition AND a year of salary you did not earn. That second cost is the one this tool exists to show, and it is why a five-year degree is far more than 25% dearer than a four-year one. Tuition paid by loan (%) Set this to 0 to model paying cash. The remainder is charged in the month it falls due rather than borrowed — the tool handles either, and the difference between them is larger than most people expect. Loan rate (%) Replace this with the rate you were actually offered. The starting value is a placeholder, not a market average — this plugin has no rate feed and will not pretend otherwise. Interest accrues while you study, which is the unsubsidised case and the conservative one. Repayment term (years) Starts at graduation. The payment is fixed in nominal dollars for the whole term — the same money leaves your account in the final year as in the first, while your salary resets to the market annually. That asymmetry works in the borrower's favour and it is modelled exactly.

The two salaries

These three figures are a worked example, not a measurement, and they are round numbers so that nobody mistakes them for one. Replace all three with yours. They are also the only fields here that describe YOU rather than a market — so they do not travel in the shareable link or the exported image unless you tick the box next to it.

If you start work now (per year) What you could earn starting today, with no degree. This is the input the answer moves on most, because every year of study is a year of it you do not receive — and that forgone salary is usually larger than the entire tuition bill. With the degree, on graduation (per year) The starting salary for the job the degree is FOR, not the average across everyone who holds one. Nobody can know this in advance, which is precisely what the sensitivity grid exists to show. Earnings while studying (per year) Part-time or vacation work during the study years. Zero is the default because seeding a figure here would quietly cancel part of the forgone-earnings cost, which is the one thing this tool is built to make visible. Put your real figure in if you have one — it moves the answer a long way.

Horizon — how far ahead to look (max 20) Measured from the day study starts, not from graduation. It has to be longer than the study period or the degree never gets a chance to pay — the tool will say so rather than guess.

Assumptions

The two growth rates below decide the answer, and neither is knowable. Change them and watch the break-even year move. If it moves a long way — and it will — the honest conclusion is that the number was never as precise as it looked.

Salary growth without the degree (% / yr) Nominal, so at the default this path's pay merely keeps up with inflation and gains nothing in real terms. It also applies to earnings while studying. Salary growth with the degree (% / yr) The graduate premium, expressed as GROWTH rather than as a one-off step up. This is the single most consequential number on the page: over a long horizon, a one-point difference here swings the result harder than the entire tuition bill. The default gives the degree one point more than the alternative — a modest advantage, assumed rather than measured. Tuition inflation (% / yr) How fast the fee rises across your years of study. Published tuition has run ahead of general inflation for decades in the US; the default is set above the inflation rate to reflect that, as a round figure rather than a cited series, because the spread varies enormously by institution and country. Investment return, after inflation (%) Applied to both paths: whichever one has money left over in a given month invests it. Default 7%, rounded up from a measured 6.7% — the S&P 500 returned 10.0% a year with dividends reinvested over 1928-2025 (Damodaran, NYU Stern), less 3.1% average CPI inflation over the same window (US Bureau of Labor Statistics). US-only, and an illustration of the past rather than a forecast. The rounding runs mildly against the degree, because the working path is the one with money invested earlier. Inflation (%) Used to translate the final figures into today's money. It never touches the loan payment, which is fixed in the dollars of the day you sign.

The free version answers the question over 20 years and says so plainly when it has clamped. Pro extends it to 50, compares three scenarios side by side, unlocks the sensitivity grid — the break-even year across a range of graduate-salary assumptions, which is the honest form of this answer — and adds image and CSV export.
The shareable link is free, for everyone, always. Pro is a separate one-time purchase — if you already subscribe to DCA Simulator Pro, this is not included in it. Worth knowing before you click, rather than at the checkout.

Educational content only — not financial advice. This compares two financial paths and nothing else. It does not price the work itself, a licence you cannot practise without, what you learn, who you meet, or the life you would rather be living. A degree that never breaks even on this chart can still be the right decision, and this tool takes no view on that. Grants, scholarships you have not been awarded, income-contingent repayment, forgiveness schemes and tax relief are not modelled. Every figure rests on assumptions you can see and change, and none of them is a forecast.